On June 23, eight Bahraini Shiite activists were sentenced to life in prison -- the latest in a string of government efforts to suppress ongoing populist uprisings. In a statement Friday, Manama defended the sentences, claiming that the activists had been convicted of "plotting to violently topple Bahrain's government" and "passing sensitive information to a terrorist organization in a foreign country." Yet even in the face of such sharp repression, Shiite Iran has been unable or unwilling to help its coreligionists in Bahrain. As a result, the crisis could lead to a significant decline in Iran's political influence with Shiite Arabs, while at the same time causing serious problems in Tehran's relations with Arab governments. Tehran's View of the Arab Spring
- Iran was quite content with the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt -- in fact, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and others presented them as part of a regional Islamic awakening inspired by Iran's 1979 revolution. For three decades before the Egyptian revolution, Tehran held no visible diplomatic relations with Cairo. Its relationship with Tunisia was not in great shape either, in part because Tunis feared that Tehran sought to use the country as a base for networking with African Islamists.
When the tremors of change reached Syria, Iran's leaders leapt to compare the protests with the crisis that followed the 2009 Iranian presidential election. That is, they denied the genuine nature of the movement while accusing the United States and Israel of plotting against what they described as a legitimate and popular government.
The protests in Bahrain proved more difficult for Tehran to digest, stemming from the Islamic Republic's conflicting attitude toward the island. On the one hand, Iran has long sought to advance its relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including Bahrain. In 2007, when President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad became the first Iranian president to attend a GCC summit, he offered to sign a security pact with Gulf Arab leaders. He also suggested forming an organization to improve economic cooperation between Iran and the GCC.
(…) The deep relations between Iranian and Bahraini Shiite clerics are another important factor. Sheikh Isa Ahmad Qassem, the Friday prayer leader at Imam Sadeq Mosque in Diraz City, has particularly close ties with the Islamic Republic. Considered the spiritual leader of Bahrain's Wafaq Party, he (along with Sheikh Hossein Nejati) is a religious representative of Khamenei, collecting taxes for the Supreme Leader, propagating his religious authority, and encouraging people to follow him rather than other "sources of emulation" (marja taqlid). Qassem is also a religious representative of Iraqi cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.
(…) Indeed, Qassem is so close to Khamenei that some Bahrainis believe the main reason why the Wafaq Party did not boycott the 2006 parliamentary elections (despite doing so in 2002) was because Khamenei advised him to participate in the political process. Those who did not follow Qassem's lead founded the Haq Movement for Liberty and Democracy, whose leader, Hassan Mushaima, has since been issued a life sentence by the Bahraini military court.
(…) Inability to Help Bahraini Shiites
- During the initial bloody demonstrations in Bahrain, Tehran verbally blasted Manama, especially after GCC countries deployed troops to help the island's government crack down on protestors. Iran has accused Bahrain and Saudi Arabia of killing scores of Shiites, demanding an end to discrimination by the ruling Sunni minority and calling on the Bahraini king to step down. In addition, Tehran has called the GCC intervention "unacceptable" and predicted it would complicate the kingdom's political crisis.
(…) In short, when it comes to Shiite protests in Bahrain, the Islamic Republic's national interests appear to have trumped its ideological ambitions. Tehran was constrained in part by harsh statements from GCC countries openly blaming Iran for the unrest, breaking from their usual caution about such accusations. In one joint statement, for example, GCC foreign ministers said they were "deeply worried about continuing Iranian meddling" in their region, arguing that "Iran's interference in Bahrain's internal affairs is in violation of international conventions and rules of good neighborliness." Mehdi Khalaji is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, focusing on the politics of Iran and Shiite groups in the Middle East. Continue reading